![]() The Bengals went 3-1, somehow losing to Mike White and the Jets.Ĭincinnati travels to Kansas City this Sunday to play a Chiefs team ranked 14th against the pass (but trending sharply upwards), then hosts the Browns (19th but with wildly erratic outliers) in Week 18. Burrow topped 10.0 yards per throw against those four with a dozen touchdowns and only two interceptions. Meanwhile, he has played four games against our bottom three pass defenses: the Jaguars, the Jets, and the Ravens twice. Cincinnati beat Minnesota by a field goal but lost to Green Bay by the same margin. He completed better than 70% of his passes and averaged 8.3 yards per throw in those two games, with four touchdowns and two interceptions, though he was sacked eight times. In fact, Burrow has only played two games against teams in the upper half of those rankings: the 10th-place Vikings and 12th-place Packers. He has also thrown 40-plus passes against the Steelers (in two games), Chargers, and Browns, all of whom are in the bottom half of the league in pass defense DVOA. Getting back to Burrow: He has now thrown 84 passes against the Ravens this year, and they are directly responsible for seven of his 30 touchdowns through the air. That would make room for Aaron Rodgers, who currently has 1,252 DYAR and 1,304 YAR, a difference of -52. Even just playing a quarter or a half against the Cowboys would radically alter Minshew's opponent adjustments and drop him off the table. The Eagles play Washington this week, and we have already discussed their sorry state, but they finish up the regular season against Dallas, now our top pass defense. The other two came against Detroit, currently ranked 26th. Gardner Minshew has only had 30 pass plays this season (including sacks, intentional groundings, and defensive pass interference plays), and 28 of them came against the Jets, the worst team in pass defense DVOA. Through Week 16, not including Monday Night FootballĮven though this is a counting stat, it is still susceptible to small-sample issues. And when we do, we find that Burrow has faced the softest pass defenses of any quarterback in 2021. We can do this same calculation for each signal-caller in each week of this season. The Colts have intercepted 17 passes, putting them in the top five in that department, and Jackson gets extra credit for playing well against such a stout unit. ![]() For comparison's sake, the best game of the year is currently Lamar Jackson's 270-DYAR outing in Week 5, when he threw 442 yards and four touchdowns against an Indianapolis defense that currently ranks 13th in pass defense DVOA. They have given up 33 touchdown passes, four more than any other team, and opposing quarterbacks have an NFL passer rating of 104.7, tied with the Jets for highest in the league.įaced with such pathetic competition, Burrow loses 56 DYAR due to opponent adjustments, third-most of any passer this week Prescott loses 26 and would have lost a lot more if he had not been pulled midway through the third quarter. Meanwhile, about 90 minutes to the west, the Washington Football Team has had its own share of injuries and is also in the bottom six in pass defense DVOA. ![]() They are allowing 8.2 yards per throw and 13.0 yards per completion, ranking last in the league in both categories, and next to last with an interception rate of 1.1%. The Ravens finished Sunday's game with their top three corners and a starting safety out with injuries they were 30th in pass defense DVOA going into Monday Night Football. There are other reasons Burrow and Prescott rank lower than you might expect-they also combined for 20 incomplete passes and a half-dozen sacks-but opponent adjustments are the biggest factor holding them down. In fact, it's what Burrow has been doing all season. While the two quarterbacks won fantasy playoff games across the country, our statistics don't give them as much credit for feasting on terrible pass defenses, which is exactly what they did on Sunday. ![]() We were preparing to update our list of the greatest games ever, but as it turns out, neither was even the best game of the year Prescott was only in fifth place this week. NFL Week 16 - Joe Burrow opened Boxing Day by dropping 525 yards and five touchdowns on the Ravens, and Dak Prescott closed it by torching Washington for 322 yards and four touchdowns in the first half.
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